I wouldn’t be dismissive of a Recession as it affects every area of most people's lives. I wouldn’t panic though. And that is my stance on any economic downturn. I have been through this before with the worst downturn coming in 2008-2010, some even calling that period a Depression.
For the pool industry, a Recession can affect some sectors worse than others. For instance, a pool builder is likely to lose leads and can see that business contract dramatically. If money is not available to pull out of your home or cash is scarce, investments are losing value, and most potential clients will simply defer the pool building project until another year or longer.
Pool stores will of course suffer with sales of the more expensive products and most high-end consumers will be pulling back as a natural reaction to a down market. Anything unnecessary will be put on hold until a future date as money may be tight for a lot of consumers.
As far as the pool service sector you can anticipate a drop of maybe 10% or less in most cases, at least that is how it was back in 2008 and I don’t see this Recession as nearly as severe as that one. People generally need pool service and will pay to have service done on their pool unless things get so tight that they need to do it themselves. Other cuts usually happen first like the house cleaner and gardener before they even consider letting the pool service go. We are also in an expanding service market with so many new pools builds coming online and so many expensive pools existing in backyards already.
The economic factors are also different this time around. Pool service back in 2008 was around $85 per month in my area and the average car payment was around $450 with gas being a little over $2.00 a gallon. Now the average in my area is $150 per month for weekly service, the average car payment is now $700 and gas is $4.50 a gallon. The pool service is a relatively smaller expense than it was in 2008 when you factor in inflation. Besides that to go to the pool store and purchase chemicals to do it yourself, you will be in for a shock as almost every pool chemical has gone up in price by 80-130%. It will be difficult to service your pool by yourself now and save substantially on the cost.
Weekly pool service is also something that many homeowners find necessary as the builders have put in more complex automation and the features of a pool have also become more complex since 2008 like UV, Ozone, Salt Systems, and the like. The investment in a backyard pool is also something that calls for professional service. Back in 2008, a pool might have cost you $40,000. For that same pool, you are now paying over $100,000 so to protect your investment you would want professional pool service.
Weekly pool service is more or less recession insulated and we will feel some of the effects of the slowdown but not the full effect that will be felt by other sectors in the economy.
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